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Real Estate News – “Sky-high apartment rents in Southern California are expected to climb further in coming years, as construction fails to keep up with population and job growth.”
Real Estate News:
No Relief In Sight For Southern California Apartment Rents
San Gabriel Valley Apartments Are No Exception
The USC Casden Multifamily Report is out, and it’s not good news for renters just yet. The report finds no relief in sight as far as Southern California apartment rents are concerned … in the near future. Of course, San Gabriel Valley apartments are not miraculously exempt from this trend as the underlying cause is simple: supply and demand. And the rules of Supply and Demand are in effect in all of Southern California.
Anyone who has tried to rent an apartment anywhere in Southern California will be aware that rents are high just about anywhere. The fact is that over the last decade there were a lot of folks who were homeowners who are not anymore. They lost their homes in foreclosure and began renting their home or became apartment dwellers. Financial conditions over the last few years, combined with the new, high prices to purchase a home have also contributed to the number of renters seeking dwellings for rent.
The result is that construction has not kept up with demand. When that happens … prices go up, and that’s what we have today with the cost of rentals in Southern California. And, we have no relief in sight for the near future.
There is, however, a hint of possible good news here, in that the economic experts who compile the USC Casden Multifamily Forecast believe that we may be seeing the “beginning of the end” of this trend. They’re not predicting a “rental turnaround” immediately, but are saying that there are factors in play that could foreshadow the end of this “bull market” in Southern California apartment rents.
Here’s a comprehensive article by Andrew Khouri from the L.A. Times. This article is based on the Casden report, but only mentions the fact that there is no relief in site immediately. It does not delve into the more complicated subject of just when this trend of really high cost for apartments in Southern California might come to an end … or at least slow down. The full report does address this, and it’s available for you to download at the bottom of this page.
“Sky-high apartment rents in Southern California are expected to climb further in coming years, as construction fails to keep up with population and job growth, according to a forecast released Tuesday. The average rent in Los Angeles County is expected to hit $1,416 a month in 2018, an 8.3% jump from last year, while in Orange County, average rents are likely to rise 9.4% to an average of $1,736, the USC Casden Multifamily Forecast said.”
The USC Casden Multifamily Report
The USC Casden Multifamily Report is a long standing and well-respected part of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forcast, which is part of the USC Lusk Center. It operates under the Casden Endowment, originally funded by Alan Casden, a major developer of Southern California multifamily housing.
If you would like to read this complete report, You can download the FULL REPORT here: https://lusk.usc.edu/casden/multifamily/report
Real Estate News
Mortgage Rates – “The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan is now at its lowest level of the year and could potentially head lower into new record territory.”
Home Loan Rates: How Low Is Low?
A Video Report
When the Fed raised interest rates at the end of last year, most everyone in the industry believed that would bring on a rise in mortgage rates. Well, that shows how much the “folks in the know” … know. The big real estate news of 2016 (so far) is that exactly the opposite has happened … and continues to happen.
Here’s a video report from Diana Olick of CNBC about current home loan rates, and what we might see in the near future.
Lower Mortgage Rates Still Ahead?
A few weeks ago in these pages, we pointed out the fact that home loan rates tend to follow the action of the 10-Year US Treasury bond prices. We stated then that the bond prices were indicating lower mortgage rates still to come … and that is exactly what we’ve seen during the ensuing days. At this point, the relationship between the two prices is still the same: the bonds are still trading downwards and there is no reason to suspect anything other than that Mortgage Home Loan Rates will continue to follow them for the short term.
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A potpourri of political and economic factors are behind the fall in mortgage rates, which follow loosely the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury. Both the Fed and the European Central Bank expressed concern this month about the trajectory of the global economy. Consumers and investors are on edge because of three factors: Oil prices can’t seem to make a decided move higher; some analysts are concerned about a stock correction; and the race for the White House has been highly volatile.
Tips For Homeowners – “So just how should you commemorate this auspicious occasion? Look no further than these ideas below”
Tips For Homeowners:
Paying Off Your Home Loan Soon? CELEBRATE!
7 Constructive And Fun Ways To Celebrate Paying Off Your Mortgage!
Although it might seem like forever, the time for paying off your home loan does evenutally come about for most folks. When that time comes it’s a huge milestone … and a little celebration is in order.
Many folks handle this in different ways. Some will celebrate over a nice, cozy dinner out. Others might have a gathering of friends over to make a toast. Still others will splurge with large parties and social gatherings.
Some people, though, get creative when it comes to passing this watermark. Here is a great article by Liz Alterman that just appeared in Realtor.com. There are some really clever … and constructive suggestions here.
“One of the best ways I heard was a family who decided to keep making their monthly mortgage payments, only to themselves instead of the mortgage company,” Dale Suggs, a Realtor with Coldwell Banker in Fuquay-Varina, NC. “You’d be surprised how quickly a monthly payment that stays at home grows into a large retirement sum when discipline is applied.”
Make Paying Off Your Home Loan Work For You
Whatever you do, when you pay off your mortgage, do something that works for you. If it’s an ongoing contribution to a charity or a family member … then enjoy it. If it’s simply some friends, some champagne and a bonfire … then enjoy that. Whatever you decide to do, paying off your mortgage is a great accomplishment, and you should not let it go uncelebrated.
Tips For Homeowners.
Real Estate News – “As cities across Southern California grapple with how to best preserve historic structures and refine outdated development standards, the debate over “mansionization” continues to take center stage.”
San Gabriel Valley Development & Mansionization
What’s Happening In Your Neighborhood?
The debate over the latest trend in real estate development, namely “mansionization”, continues to boil across the San Gabriel Valley. Year by year the character of neighborhoods is changing, in some places rapidly, and not everyone is elated.
The debate, of course, revolves around two points of view. One is that a property owner should be able to do what they want with their property as long as they remain within codes. The other is more concerned with neighborhood preservation and maintaining the original “character” of an area.
It’s a tough call and not an easy one to make. There are many pushing for restrictions on living space relative to lot size in different areas. There are also those concerned that placing such restrictions will have a negative effect on property values in the restricted area. And, there are those who fear that the very word “mansionization” is actually a kind of coded racism.
So, what is “mansionization”, and how is it impacting our area? Today we’ll be highlighting two articles, both by Courtney Thompkins of the San Gabriel Valley Tribune. One concerns the very nature of mansionization … what it is and how it can impact a neighborhood. The other is a report on current activities by the city council in Arcadia and the critical decision they may possibly be making as early as tomorrow night.
What Is Mansionization? Real Estate Trend Debated Across San Gabriel Valley | San Gabriel Valley Tribune
“They have been referred to as “starter castles,” a play on the term starter home, the type of development that sprouted many cities in the San Gabriel Valley.
“The desire to preserve neighborhoods’ classic look is one of the bigger concerns voiced by residents throughout the Southland, but some say the underlying concern is the changing demographics and differing cultural aesthetics.”
ARCADIA >> Officials on Tuesday will decide whether the city should pursue an economic impact study before adopting new residential zoning regulations. The City Council had intended to review the proposed zoning code recommendations this week, but a Planning Commission vote in late February altered the course.
Real Estate News
San Gabriel Valley News– VIDEO REPORT – The long-awaited Arcadia To Azusa extension of the Metro Foothill Gold Line opened to the public last Saturday, March 5th.
San Gabriel Valley News:
Metro Foothill Extension Opens – VIDEO Report
You Can Now Ride The Metro From Azusa To Downtown L.A. Will Commuters Hop Aboard?
Well, the festivities were reportedly a lot of fun over the weekend, but as the 11 1/2 mile extension of the Metro Foothill Gold Line opens, extending the reach of the system out from Pasadena to the new Azusa station, the big question still remains: will commuters take advantage of the new trains?
Opinions on that question vary. They seem to range from “Heck yeah! No more parking problems!” to “They’ll pry my steering wheel out of my hand over my cold, dead body”! One thing is for certain, the new extension does open up the possibility of taking the train to a whole lot more people, and makes hopping from Azusa or Monrovia into the downtown and Hollywood areas a snap.
Today, we’ll cover the “goings on” through a couple of videos we’d like to share with you. The first is a report of the opening from NBC News. The second is a “point of view” video, where you can actually ride the new extension for yourself … sort of take a test run without ever leaving your screen. Enjoy!
This next video was shot by the Foothill Gold Line before the extension actually opened on March 5th. It was actually put together in 2014 just after the actual track was completed, so most of the stations were not yet done and a lot of work was still going on.
The complete trip from Arcadia to Azusa now takes about 17 minutes including stops. This video is a high-speed version that shows you the whole thing in about 6 minutes. Have fun!
San Gabriel Valley News
Real Estate News – “We’ve only just gotten the major data reports for January, and … things are looking good. …”
Real Estate News:
January Numbers Are In & They’re Good
The Numbers For Home Sales Trends In January Of 2016 Paint A Picture Of A Solid Market That’s Steadily Improving
Most analysts have been waiting with bated breath for the January numbers to come in concerning real estate trends. The fact is that in December, as reported in these pages, there were some influences that lengthened some closings and pushed them from November to December. There are probably some that were pushed from December to January. At any rate, there was some shuffling around of sales and closings that made the “numbers crunching” rather murkey. All in all, most market watchers have been and ramained positive. But those murky areas in the numbers did cause some to be concerned that we could see a slow down in January.
Well, there needn’t have been concern in that area. The numbers are in for January and they are good. The economy in general is having a positive influence on everything here. The fact that 151,000 jobs were added last month is very supportive of demand, and indicates the 3% economic growth that most analysts have been predicting for 2016 will most probably be in the ball park. Other factors, too, contribute to what looks like a very healthy market report.
For a detailed look at all this, we’d like to direct your attention to a very recent article by Jonathan Smoke of Realtor.com News. He runs it all down there. Take a look at that, and we’ll continue our discussion after the break.
Net-net, pent-up demand appears stronger than any weakness caused by the financial markets. And the lower rates are encouraging would-be buyers to act sooner rather than later. With this strong start, 2016 should indeed see growth, but the biggest constraint will be the tight supply.
Starting 2016 With A Healthy Home Sales Market
So, it appears we’re beginning 2016 with a fairly healthy home sales market. Most analysts were expecting a decline in home sales activity in January, but we found instead there had been an increase in activity of 0.4%. That’s not huge, but it happens at an unexpected time. All things considered, it appears that we have increasing demand in January. That’s unusual. Most Realtors and market analysts don’t expect to see that. traditionally, until March or April.
Bottom line here: Increased activity maintains pressure upwards on prices as inventories remain low. If you’re a potential buyer in 2016, you might want to get moving now instead of wating for the traditional “Spring / Summer Selling Season”. We could see prices rising in the summer, so now may be a better time to buy if you’re able. Additionally, mortgage rates are incredibly low right now, and that can’t last forever. There are multiple forces and incators telling buyers to move now if they can.
Real Estate News
Mortgage Rates – “Mortgage rates held steady this week at 3.65 percent for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan. It’s the first time all year that rates didn’t fall …”
Do Treasury Yields Indicate Still Lower Rates Ahead?
Home Loan Rates Usually Follow Treasury Bond Yields
Will This Hold True Again?
We’ve been predicting in these pages that you could pretty much rely on continued home loan prices in the “relatively low” range for the near future. Here comes an indicator that confirms that predicition, but also says we may see even lower mortgage rates here in the near future. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the “perfect moment” (not a good strategy to try to pick the bottom or top of any market, by the way), then you may just see it here over the next coupld of weeks.
Treasury Bond Yields are usually a good indicator of where the mortgage market is going. Home loan rates seem to follow the Treasury yields pretty closely. As you can see in the chart above, Treasury yields have fallen signifigantly since the beginning of the year. Home loan rates have too, but they’ve not kept pace with the bond yields. This is a good indicator that we may see even lower home mortgage loan prices ahead in the near future as the two markets attempt to come back to a more normal balance.
So what about mortgages? Look at how quickly Treasury yields are falling compared to mortgage rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped 54 basis points since the beginning of this year. Mortgage rates have fallen only 36 basis points, according to Freddie Mac.
Is History A Good Indicator Of Performance In Home Loan Rates?
So, is history a good indicator of what we can expect in the near term in mortgage rates? The short answer is “yes”. History is a good indicator in all markets when it comes to predicting what they’ll do in the future. I know it sounds old fashioned, but there really is nothing “new under the sun”. All markets are creatures that repeat the same actions again, and again, and again … with an occasional explosion of unexpected deviance from the norm. The funny thing is that after most of those abnormal variances we can look back and say, “Oh, sure! We should have seen that coming”!
Barring anything like that right here in this situation … and I don’t see anything like that coming here … we can see the possibility of even lower home loan rates in the very near future … say the next week or two. How long things will last at that lower level would be anyone’s guess.
We’ll keep our eyes out for two things here: 1) If and when these lower mortgage rates actually do materialize and come into alignment with the Treasury Yields; and, 2) Any indicators after that of when those rates might start climbing once again … and how far how fast..
Home Buyer Tips – From the value of different types of locations to negotiating strategies that can get you what you want, the more knowledge you have before taking the plunge, the better off you’ll be.
Home Buyer Tips:
6 From Realty Times
Advice For Home Buyers
From One Of The Industry’s Top Sources
Here at BrionCosta.com we recognize the value of bringing in good information from all types of different sources and passing that information on to our readers. In this way, when you visit this site, you not only get our opinions, you get the input of some of the industry’s finest minds as well. Today’s post is a good example.
Realty Times is a great website with contributions from a variety of authorities on all things having to do with real estate. Today’s post is a collection of four of their best articles on tips for home buyers that have appeared over the last 45 days or so. From choosing a good location to making sure you’ve crossed all the “t’s” and dotted all the “i’s”, you’ll find some great information in these articles.
Look for more of this kind of “Digest” post from us in the future. It’s a great way to get a lot of information to you at once. We’ll be doing one on “Home Seller Tips” within the next few days.
http://realtytimes.com Category: Buyers’ Advice Wednesday, February 10, 2016 2:09:37 PM
A few years back, “the Starbucks effect” became a legitimate term to explain the higher real estate values associated with living close to the coffee house. But being within easy…
http://realtytimes.com Category: Buyers’ Advice Thursday, February 4, 2016 1:17:34 PM
In today’s market, you usually need up to 10 percent of a home’s purchase price for a down payment. This means a $250,000 home could require $25,000 down plus closing…
http://realtytimes.com Category: Buyers’ Advice Thursday, February 4, 2016 1:16:40 PM
As most people know, the real estate market shifts between a buyers’ or sellers’ market, depending on supply and demand. However, regardless of which market we’re currently in, buyer etiquette…
http://realtytimes.com Category: Buyers’ Advice Sunday, January 24, 2016 6:22:33 AM
When it comes to buying a home, we always think about the big things: sales price, location, mortgage qualification. But it’s often the little things that rise up to make…
http://realtytimes.com Category: Buyers’ Advice Wednesday, January 27, 2016 12:23:58 PM
The only thing worse than not being able to buy a home when you want to is owning a home and not being able to do anything but sit inside…
http://realtytimes.com Category: Buyers’ Advice Wednesday, January 20, 2016 1:24:24 PM
Your son and daughter-in-law want to purchase their first house, but their income will not carry the mortgage. There are a number of ways you can help them out. This…
Home Buyer Tips.
Commercial Real Estate – “It is probable that global uncertainty will serve to keep interest rates low and allow for growth of fundamentals in the commercial real estate markets and in the broader domestic economy.” …
Commercial Real Estate:
2016 Market Outlook
Outlook Remains Positive As Capital Refocuses On Different Areas
When trying to predict the 2016 commercial real estate market outlook, one is faced with a dizzying array of contradictory factors. There have been some drastic changes in fundamentals over the last year or so, such as the decline of world financial markets. The current behavior of the Chinese markets is a case in point.
However, when all is said and done, the fundamentals of the U.S. commercial real estate market are sound. The economy, for instance, is growing slowly but solidly. I’ve said many times that I’d rather see an economy growing more slowly than some would like than I’d like to see one growing too quickly and thereby falling into recession. Slow, solid growth is always more preferable than the “boom and bust” behavior we saw in some recent decades.
What we’re seeing right now is the refocusing of capital away from areas now becoming too “pricey”, and towards areas that have yet to fulfill potential. Today I want to share with you an article by a real expert on this subject, Kevin Maggiacomo, President & CEO of Sperry Van Ness International Corp. (SVN). In this great analysis, Kevin points out some very interesting bits of information that are pertinent to us here in Southern California.
2016 has started with higher levels of volatility in United States equity markets as a result of justifiably significant fears of global economic pressures causing falling demand domestically. While some investors are taking a fearful stance, we see a different outcome. It is probable that global uncertainty will serve to keep interest rates low and allow for growth of fundamentals in the commercial real estate markets and in the broader domestic economy. Furthermore, even in the event of a domestic economic slowdown, the global uncertainty could lead to lower interest rates and even greater inflows of foreign capital, supporting the domestic commercial real estate market (the current risk / reward proposition of U.S. investment is unbeatable).
California Commercial Real Estate Forecast
To me, the most interesting items in Kevin’s article are the lists of areas that were “hot” in property sales in 2015 as opposed to the ones he predicts will become “hot” growth areas during the coming year. He sees the major, well-known commercial markets like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose (speaking just of California here), being surpassed in terms of rate of growth by what we might term “secondary” areas like Orange County and the Inland Empire, along with areas of Central California.
These will be the areas for Commercial Real Estate investors to watch as we move into 2016.
Commercial Real Estate.